“When a paradigm shifts, everyone goes back to zero.”1
A paradigm shift can be so powerful that it wipes out entire industries. One of the most notable examples that Joel Barker uses in his book is the invention of the quartz movement which put the Swiss watch industry into its grave. The irony? The quartz movement was invented by the Swiss, but commercially developed by the Japanese. As Barker relates the account, the Swiss were not able to see their own future. Within a matter of a few years, electronic watches replaced mechanical watches.
Other examples of game-changing technology abound. How many of you still use a camera that requires film? New technology allows us to take (and share) digital photos (and videos) with cameras built into our wireless phones. Film is so yesterday. And so are Fotomat huts (and pay phones). Now, most of the cameras that still use film are disposable. Those are but a few examples of how technology can create new industries while rendering old industries obsolete.
The crisis occurs when a new paradigm suddenly appears on the scene. Now everyone is starting from scratch—even the legacy company that has been fantastically successful in the old paradigm. The new startup company is able to compete in the new paradigm because the legacy company may try to hang on to the old paradigm for a while longer. This illustrates how success can be an obstacle: there is so much inertia in the old paradigm, that it takes time to even notice when a change has occurred.
The paradigm shift is like a reset button. Nothing that happened before the reset really matters—it makes no difference how good you were up to that point. Success (or survival) now depends upon the manner in which you respond to the reset. Barker identifies three options: (1) change your paradigm; (2) change your customer; (3) change both.2 And there is a fourth option—change nothing…and lose everything.
Next article: Where Does the New Paradigm Come From?
J.R. Dickens
Footnotes:
1Barker, p. 140. Paradigms: The Business of Discovering the Future
2ibid., p. 166.
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